Well, here is my prediction of what is going to happen Thursday, March 1 , 2012 when Sheriff Joe Arpaio holds his press conference and announces the findings of the Cold Case Posse which has been investigating Obamas’s eligibility. First, I predict that whatever the results are, there will be a lot of people wailing, “Say It Ain’t So, Joe!!!”
Now, from that very safe position, let me venture into less safe territory. I predict that Arpaio is going to do the right thing, for the right reasons, and tell the Birthers that there is nothing to their claims. My basis for this assessment is that after nearly four years, there simply isn’t any substantial evidence that Obama is not exactly who he says he is, or that he was not born in Hawaii.
There is a question as to why Obama has, or had, a Connecticut social security number when he never lived there. There is a question as to whether or not his social security number belonged to another person, one born in 1890. There is a question as to whether he is eligible because his father was not a citizen. There is a question as to whether or not Obama was adopted by his Indonesian step-father. There is a question as to why his birth certificate number seems out of order with the Nordyke twins. And questions have been raised as to whether or not the Internet image of his long form birth certificate is genuine.
Those questions fall into three general categories:
1. Obama is either not who he says he is, or a very bad boy who uses other people’s identities.
2. Obama’s alleged birth certificate images are false and he was not born in Hawaii, and is thus not eligible to hold the office.
3. Obama is not legally eligible to hold office because he was adopted, or because his father was not a citizen.
Here is where the first category of questions break down: Identity theft is a real crime, but when it occurs, you generally have a real person out there bringing it to the attention of the cops, complaining that “somebody is pretending to be me!” Here, you don’t have anyone doing that.
It could be free floating identity theft, where a person just assumes an invented identity. But there are problems with that approach. Unless someone got the papers when they were children, there is no history for the personna. For example, Pedro, a 30 year old illegal alien, who slipped across the border last year, may have a social security card showing he is Skippy Throckmorton III. But Skippy doesn’t have friends from high school, because Skippy didn’t exist then. Here, you have people who have known Obama for years. None of them claim that the person in the White House does not exist, or that he is not the real Obama.
Michelle Obama has not called the police and complained that some stranger is occupying her bed and pretending to be the father of Sasha and Malia. You don’t have law professors out there saying that this person is not the same one they taught in law school. Old friends on the island don’t call Hawaii Five O to report that somebody is impersonating their friend that they have known since high school. Or, complain that such a friend never existed in the first place, and is crashing their golf game.
I suspect that the Cold Case Posse has the ability to run Obama’s driver’s license, and some way to check his social security number. But again, even if the number was incorrect, there is still a lack of anyone complaining that their number is being usurped, and a lack of anyone who knows him complaining that he is not who he says he is.
Which leads the possibility of a false identity scam dating back to the date of his birth. This possibility lies on the borderline of the first and second categories and brings the birth certificate questions into play. However, all questions about the long form birth certificate, including the numbering questions, are going nowhere because the State of Hawaii has already gone on the record affirming the relevant facts.
Plus, if Obama was actually someone else, and the birth certificate is false as to identity as opposed to being false about the place of birth, then more implausibility arises. One would have to believe that the present-day Obama, who was either switched at birth or created from whole cloth, has been exclusively playing the Barack Obama role his entire life. He has gone through elementary school, high school, college, law school, and adult life as Barack Obama. It is unreasonable to the max to imagine some Svengali has enough influence to steal over 50 years of a person’s life.
Returning to place of birth, there is no substantial evidence that Obama was born elsewhere. There are several African newspapers and an African politician or two who say Obama was born in Kenya. That’s it. But how likely is it that the Cold Case Posse is going to give those statements more credibility than the Americans over in the Hawaiian DOH??? Not very.
The third category of questions also crash of their own weight. If Obama had been adopted, the Cold Case Posse might be able to turn up the paperwork, but there is no law against being adopted. Any effect on his natural born citizenship status would be a legal question for the courts, not the sheriff’s office. And the same thing applies to the whole gamut of legal questions relating to eligibility, including the two citizen-parent foolishness.
Plus, unless the Cold Case Posse is cold because they have been stuck in a freezer somewhere for years, they are surely aware that the courts have been throwing out the Birther lawsuits left and right. I do not see it as very likely the Posse is going to pick a fight they can not win.
All of the above are very simple and basic observations. So simple, that I do not see either Sheriff Joe Arpaio, or the Cold Case Posse missing them, and risking being labeled The Posse That Couldn’t Shoot Straight. I have read some Internet Articles which suggest that Arpaio may hedge his bets and clear Obama, but do it in a way designed to leave the issue in doubt. For example, announce that they could not find any evidence because neither the State of Hawaii nor Obama would cooperate.
That is a possibility, but my take on Arpaio is that he is a blunt, no-nonsense guy and will call it like he sees it. If political considerations were on his mind, then it would be more likely that he would not wish to be associated with a pack of looney tune Birthers. Particularly at a time when his professional conduct is under attack from the DOJ and others.
Some of the Birthers seem to be preparing for the Second Coming convinced that Obama will be arrested shortly after the press conference and frog-marched away to Gitmo. World Net Daily is going to carry the press conference live and at first blush, the idea arises that Farah and crew must be privy to some secret information and has hired a band to play some marching music. But World Net Daily has a story either way this shakes out. Either, Arpaio Nails Obama!!! or Obama Thugs Get to Arpaio!!! works for them.
Sooo, that is my prediction and the basis for my guess. I can hardy wait for Thursday.
Note 1. Say It Ain’t So, Joe. This phrase relates to a story is from the 1919 World Series scandal. As Wiki says,
Shoeless Joe Jackson did admit to receiving a cash payment of $5,000 ($67,025 today) and that he had been originally promised a $20,000 ($268,100 today) bribe. Legend has it that as Jackson was leaving the courthouse during the trial, a young boy begged of him, “Say it ain’t so, Joe,” and that Jackson did not respond. In an interview in SPORT nearly three decades later, Jackson contended that this story was a myth.
Regardless of whether Jackson’s exchange with the shocked young fan was a true historical event or a fabrication by a sensationalist journalist, the “Say It Ain’t So” story remains an oft-repeated and well-known part of baseball lore.
Note 2. The Quest For The Absolut. A wordplay on Balzac’s The Quest Of The Absolute, a novella which strangely presages the Birthers’ unsuccessful attempts to transmute poop into gold.
But–unexpected shock!–Madame Claes learned through the humiliating medium of some women friends, who showed surprise at her ignorance, that her husband constantly imported instruments of physical science, valuable materials, books, machinery, etc., from Paris, and was on the highroad to ruin in search of the Philosopher’s Stone.
Absolut, on the other hand, represents a successful transmutation of baser materials into a higher state.
Note 3. Augurs. Well, there’s augurs and then there’s augers.
augured, past participle; augured, past tense; auguring, present participle; augurs, 3rd person singular present
1. (of an event or circumstance) Portend a good or bad outcome
* – the end of the Cold War seemed to augur well
* – the return to the gold standard augured badly for industry
2. Portend or bode (a specified outcome)
* – a new coalition would not augur a new period of social reforms
3. Foresee or predict
1. (in ancient Rome) A religious official who observed natural signs, esp. the behavior of birds, interpreting these as an indication of divine approval or disapproval of a proposed action.
1. A tool with a helical bit for boring holes in wood
2. A similar larger tool for boring holes in the ground
I sure hope I am not boring here.