One of my favorite Birthers is Lord Monckton of Brenchley. He has a lot of class, and is not afraid to stick his neck out on contrarian causes. Which is a lot more rare than you might think. Monckton is a natural born bon vivant, just brimming over with insoucience. I believe he propounds the Birther foolishness just to stir up crap in the colonies. I can see him sitting in his easy chair in front of a good fire, feet propped up on some peasant, and a leather bound volume of Robert Southey in hand, reading about poor Mary, the Maid of the Inn, and chortling about maniacs, in general. So it is fun to finally put him to good use whomping some Birthers right upside the head.
Anyway, over at ObamaReleaseYourRecords, they have strung together three idiotic stories to create a Frankenstein Manchurian Candidate out of Obama:
Three Men Told Of Obama’s
Manchurian Presidency In Advance
Marine Claims While In Hawaii In 1980 He Met Young Obama Who Told Him He Was Born In Mombasa, Kenya And Wanted To Be President One Day.
Ayers Family Postman Claims He Was Told By Bill Ayers’ Mother That Obama Was A Foreign Student. He Also Claims He Met Obama Outside The Ayers Home And Was Told By Obama Himself That He Was Going To Be President.
Physicist Thomas Fife Claims While In Russia In 1992 He Was Told By Former KGB Agents The U.S. Will Have A Black, Soviet Agent As President Soon Named Barack.
Each of these has a video, and the story can be found at this link:
I know that two of these stories have already been debunked, but I will deal with the substantive claims in another Internet Article(s). For now, I want to take the easy way out, like the Birthers usually do, and simply debunk this by using some Monckton Math! Some time ago Lord Monckton made Birther Headlines by stringing together some calculations of odds. For example, if you roll a set of dice, there are 36 possible combinations (6 x 6=36) and therefore 1 chance in 36 of getting a particular combination. (egs. a “6” on the first die, and a “5” on the second one.)
A person could add another set of odds to this, and then calculate the overall odds, although conceptually the result is meaningless. For example, the odds of drawing the Jack of Spades from a standard deck, with no jokers, is 1 in 52. You could calculate the chance of first rolling a 6, then a 5, and then drawing the Jack, as (1/6) x (1/6) x (1/52). This works out to 1 chance in 1,872, although I am not sure why you would care.
Anyway, Monckton strung together a series of estimated odds on Obama’s birth certificate issue and supposedly arrived at some miniscule chance that the document was genuine. This was conceptually flawed approach. With dice, or cards, the total number of chances is discreet. There are six possibilities for each roll, for each die. Meanwhile, Monckton used such well established “odds” as:
Lavishly funded bureaucracy uses wonky typewriter:” 10:1
The fact that the registrar’s signature-stamp on the electronic form can be moved about: 100:1 against.
Use of “African” contrary to written form-filling rules and 20 years before the term came into common use: 25:1
It was a fun read, but laughable. No one but a MORON would have taken it seriously, (I estimate 1000 to 1 against a rational person falling for it.) BUT, ORYR ran with the story, here:
Sooo, lets all play goofball in the same park! I hereby make the following conservative estimates:
1. Odds that the Marine is telling the truth – 1 in 100; (This story has been debunked.)
2. Odds that if the Marine was accurate, and that he actually met Obama – 1 in 1000; (Assuming there were only 1,000 young black men on the whole island.)
3. Odds that the Postman’s memory was correct – 1 in 3; (Simply estimated odds of accurately remembering such an encounter, as opposed to a false memory.)
4. Odds that if the Postman’s memory was correct, he actually met Obama – 1 in 1000; (Again, assuming there were only 1,000 young black men in Chicago. Am I being conservative here, or what???)
5. Odds that the Ruskie is accurate about deep cover agents inserted for that particular purpose – 1 in 500; (Really, trying to game the Presidency that many years in advance with a Black American???)
I could go on and on, like Monckton, and add some more “odds” to really zing the number up into the gazillion range, but this will suffice. Now, let’s do some Monckton Math, and see how this all works out. (1/100) x (1/1000) x (1/3) x (1/1000) x (1/500) (Hmmm, I get 1 chance in 150 Billion that the ORYR story is true! Oops. I messed up. That’s actually a better chance of being true than most Birther claims.
Uh, never mind.
Note 1. The Image. This is from the 1931 film, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
Note 2. Lord Monckton has been the subject of two previous articles here:
Like I said, the ORYR stories are a little long in the tooth: The Postman also made appearances, including:
The Marine got clobbered. also:
There is also a link in the Marine story, to the Barackryphal Blog, which is an excellent read:
Note 3. Mary, The Maid of the Inn. Yes, of course there is such a poem! I like Robert Southey. Most of his writings are not overwhelmingly fantastic, but when you pick up a book of his, you find yourself still reading several hours later.
Note 4. The Caption and the Image Easter Egg. Many websites and comment sections now ask you to “prove you are a human” by answering a math question, like that. For ESL’s “peering in”, in the sense of looking in a window, is a wordplay on Lord Monckton’s insistence on presenting himself as a “peer of the realm.”